São Paulo, February 9, 2026 — After Brazil’s newly regulated betting sector generated R$37 billion in gross gaming revenue in its first year, becoming the world’s fifth-largest betting market, attention is already turning to what could come next for Latin America’s iGaming economy: prediction markets.
Momentum is building. The Brazilian co-founder of Kalshi, a billion-dollar US-based prediction market platform, has publicly stated that has Brazil in its sights. Polymarket, a company from the same segment, while not officially available in the country, already hosts Brazil-focused markets populated with Portuguese-language commentary and is increasingly cited by media as a reference point for political and economic expectations.
If projections from Citizens Financial Group prove accurate — estimating that platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt could see revenues grow fivefold to exceed $10 billion by 2030 — expansion into Latin America looks less like a question of if and more a question of how. And while regulatory clarity will be one hurdle, payments may prove to be the decisive one.
“Prediction markets represent a powerful evolution in how information, belief and financial commitment intersect,” says André Boesing, GM South Latam at OKTO PAYMENTS, a global payment service provider supporting merchants in highly complex and fast-moving digital commerce environments. “They translate collective sentiment into real-time probabilities – but for merchants that creates a very demanding financial and operational set-up.”
Where Payments Become the Constraint
Many modern prediction platforms rely on highly transparent, real-time back-end architectures designed to ensure clear outcomes and deterministic settlement. While this helps establish trust at a market level, it also introduces significant challenges when it comes to payments, compliance, and user experience.
For mainstream users, friction at the point of deposit or withdrawal remains a major barrier. For merchants, the challenge is even broader: reconciling instant user expectations with regulated fiat rails, local compliance requirements, liquidity management, and reliable settlement — often across borders.
“These dynamics are familiar,” Boesing notes. “They closely resemble the early stages of regulated online betting in Latin America, where user behaviour evolved faster than the underlying payment infrastructure could support.”
OKTO PAYMENTS sees two recurring tensions at the heart of prediction market payments:
- Simplicity versus reliability
Delivering instant, intuitive pay-in and payout experiences while managing high-frequency transaction flows, liquidity, and settlement in the background. - Innovation versus compliance
Supporting new business models without compromising local AML, KYC, and regulatory obligations.
Without solving both, platforms risk stalling before reaching mass adoption.
Liquidity, Friction, and Lost Opportunity
In prediction markets, speed is not a feature — it is the product. If users cannot fund accounts instantly in response to breaking news, the market loses its value as a real-time forecasting mechanism.
Yet many operators still rely on fragmented payment stacks that struggle to deliver real-time deposits, localised methods, and seamless settlement. The result is predictable: abandoned transactions, delayed participation, and lost volume precisely when user intent is highest.
But as competition intensifies, these frictions become existential rather than technical.
Payments as a Strategic Advantage
Industry experts increasingly agree that the winners in prediction markets will not be defined by the number of contracts they list, but by the efficiency of their financial rails.
“The true differentiator for prediction markets in 2026 is the last mile of the transaction,” says André Boesing. “When prices move in seconds, any friction in payments is a barrier to participation. Platforms that can offer instant, compliant, and localised payment experiences — while abstracting complexity away from users — are the ones that scale.”
Preparing for a Prediction Market Boom in 2026 and beyond
As prediction markets and similar digital formats mature, the competitive focus is shifting from what users trade to how they interact with platforms financially. Just like in modern sports betting, payments are no longer a back-office consideration; they are a primary driver of user experience, liquidity, and differentiation.
André Boesing concludes, “Latin America’s betting market didn’t grow simply because products improved; it grew because mobile users started playing differently, and the industry adapted. Prediction markets are entering that same phase, where success will depend on who keeps up with how users actually behave.”
For platforms eyeing Latin America, the message is clear: market demand is forming quickly, but only those who can solve payments will be positioned to capture it.
About OKTO PAYMENTS
OKTO PAYMENTS is the next-generation Payment Service Provider – AI-native, precision-engineered, and relentlessly merchant-obsessed. Built for merchants operating in the most complex and demanding eCommerce sectors, our platform does far more than process transactions. We solve for scale, compliance, and performance — with one unshakable focus: delivering outcomes that powers merchants growth.
From payments and banking to treasury and settlement, we engineer the financial infrastructure that gives our partners an edge. The result? Faster onboarding, smarter operations, and resilient, real-time performance.
At OKTO PAYMENTS, we enable merchants to Play Differently, transforming payments from routine transactions into genuine differentiators that create personalized, frictionless payment experiences for their customers.
Our AI-native innovation harnesses data and insight to power every decision, while our proprietary, in-house engineering ensures precision and control. Combined with deep, trust-based relationships across the globe, we’re redefining what it means to build, scale, and win in complex and demanding digital commerce.
